Using frequency trees
We can use our expected frequency diagram to answer some key questions about the experiment. We can clearly use the completed diagram above to answer some simple questions: What proportion …
Course: Teaching Probability
Introducing frequency trees
A tree diagram is a good means of recording the expected frequencies for the experiment. Students may find it useful to record their results on a copy of the tree …
Using the spreadsheet simulation
Use the spreadsheet ‘Simulation 2’ to generate a set of (simulated) data for the ‘Dog ate my homework’ experiment. Carrying out 24 trials should be simple – you just need …
Spreadsheet models for conditional probability
Download the supplied spreadsheet, ‘Simulation 2’. This shows how we can use a spreadsheet to simulate the results of ‘The dog ate my homework’. Notice that the downloaded spreadsheet is …
Using cubes
Now we would like you to try out an experiment to model the situation in ‘The dog ate my homework’. You can do this on your own – we are …
Physical models for frequency
Conditional probability problems like ‘The dog ate my homework’ can involve a complex series of choices and outcomes. To help us model the problem with an experiment, we have chosen …
Introducing the problem
We are going to use a task to model an alternative approach to teaching problems involving conditional probability. In this step, we will present the task and give you an …
A controversial question
In the UK in 2015, a probability question in a GCSE examination paper made front page news. Read this article that describes the question and the controversy that it caused. …
Introduction to Week 2
In this video, David Spiegelhalter introduces Week 2 of the course, where we turn our attention to the teaching of conditional probability. In the video, David asked whether you agree …
Week 1 summary
Congratulations on completing Week 1 of this course! Next week, we will be investigating conditional probability, a popular topic for assessments, and looking at how we can extend this week’s …
A fair game?
We have made one of the classroom activities from the Teaching Probability book, ‘Which team will win’?, available for you to download. (The book also contains detailed analysis of suggested …
Putting it into practice
We would like you to try out the ideas that we have introduced so far with some of your own classes or students. We have covered a lot of ground, …
Week 1 Introduction
Watch this video, in which Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter introduces the course. After watching, please use the comments to introduce yourself, and tell us what you hope to gain from …
From expected frequencies to probabilities
We do not start with probability trees, because they present students with a whole range of new concepts and techniques simultaneously, and many problems can be solved without them, using …
From empirical results to expected frequencies
So far, we have worked entirely with experimental data. We have deliberately used a mathematical model for this, as the difference between, say, a rainy morning and sunny afternoon, and …
